I just watched the BMO press conference in Valencia, online along with 1,400 saddoes like me. It was a little under an hour of Q&A with Ellison, Coutts and Spithill. Other than some silliness about not attending the Owners’ Press Conference because Coutts is not invited, most of the comments stayed away from the bickering and focused on the sailing and the boat. Thank God!
One thing is for absolute certain, no one has a clue what’s going to happen. Monday is going to be full of surprises. For starters, no one has a confident handle on the weather and whether the race is going to happen at all. Coutts confirmed what we all know, that BMO is favored in heavier air and Alighi is favored in lighter air.
Secondly they don’t know who will be on the boat as they are still trying to make weight. Larry and Russell may be on the boat and then again maybe they won’t. They weren’t being cagey, they just didn’t know.
The most interesting points came from Spithill. Unless this was some huge ruse, it’s clear that they are still learning about what the boat can and can’t do. With every answer Spithill, reinforced the risks and uncertainties of sailing these boats to their limits. Simply tacking the boat requires a level of coordination and complexity that makes the older AC boats seem like sailing seem a laser. He looked almost wide-eyed about it.
Coutts said it best. In older generations of AC boats, it was 50% about technology and 50% about sailing. With these boats, it’s 95% about technology and 5% sailing. As a lot of it is new technology we know what that means. As one of the questioners put it best, there is a 70% risk of gear failure. By my math that means that the odds are that neither boat could make it round the course.
The most telling point was Spithill’s final comments when he said that they will be mostly focused on sailing their boat versus watching the other boat. Now he could be lying through his teeth here but he made a convincing case that the biggest challenge is not outwitting Alighi on tactics but just making sure BMO gets round the course as fast as possible. Exciting yes but not much of a match race really, just two boats sailing to their individual limits.
Still it will be fascinating and I will drag my ass out of bed at 4 am on Monday to watch it.
It was an interesting press conference. I got the feeling they were diplomatically answering some questions while playing their cards close to the vest. It will be very interesting to see how their tactics change after the first leg or race. I’ll be up at 1am!
Not to be pedantic, but if each boat has a 70% chance of gear failure in each race (and we are assuming that that means a failure that takes it out of the race) then by my math the chances of the various possible outcomes are…
Only Alinghi has a failure 21% (70×30)
Only BMW Oracle has a failure 21% (ditto)
Neither boat has a failure 9% (30×30)
Both boats have failures 49% (70×70).
So it is not true to say that “the odds are that neither boat could make it round the course” as there is a 51% probability that at least one boat will finish.
OK, I guess that was pretty pedantic.
Sorry.
Merrifie, you could well be right but Spithill seems such an honest bloke. Bring on Monday, then we’ll see.
Tman, that’s a little scary. It reminds me of a British game show called ask the famnily with Robert Robinson. You might remember it. If two America’s Cup yachts have a combined failure rate of 70% how many billion dollars does Larry Ellison have?
22.5
Yikes, 4 am?
I wonder if there will be a highlights tape a little later.
Still, on the off chance I have worse insomnia than usual, any hints as to the best website for watching it?
BMW Oracle Website is said to have a live feed of the race but on the Live Feed website it says the race is at 9:00 am est. Not sure what is going on there. Other accounts say that the BMW live feed will start at 2:00 am with pre-race shows.
http://www.livestream.com/bmworacleracing
ESPN 360 will have a live feed on their website. Coverage begins at 345 am est.
Sailing Anarchy will also be commentating. Commentary should be interesting but the quality will not be there.
http://www.sailinganarchy.com/otwa/33rd_aclive.php
hope this helps.
Thanks! & Adam, thanks for today’s roundup, too.
ps – “Sailing Anarchy will also be commentating. Commentary should be interesting but the quality will not be there.” – I think I snickered audibly when I read that!